The All-Star Break starts tomorrow, friends, and since it comes at about the halfway point of the season, it's time to offer up some predictions for the second half.
A quick glance at the SPI standings will show you that six teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the league, but looking even more closely will show that of those six teams, three of them are even more outstanding. Much was made of the Chicago Cubs before the start of this season. Several pundits said that this year - the hundredth since they last won a World Series - would be their year to win it all. So far, they look to be right on the money. The Cubs are easily the league's best team, although they haven't been able to distance themselves from everyone else quite yet. There's always been someone nipping at their heels. A couple of weeks ago it was the Tampa Bay Rays. Now that the Rays have lost six straight and dropped over 30 runs from their scoring differential, the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox are making a move. A lot can happen between now and the start of the playoffs in October, but I'd be surprised if one of these three teams wasn't on top of the standings at the end of the year.
Meanwhile, some other teams that were supposed to make a lot of noise this year have faltered. The Cleveland Indians have disappointed, going from a tremendous season in 2007 to a 40-53 record at the half. Yikes. The Tigers were also supposed to be great this year with a powerful offensive lineup. Instead, the Tigers have struggled to post a winning record, earning them an SPI that has hovered around 5.5. Many are saying that the Tigers have started to turn things around and that they could be dangerous come October. I'm not so sure - in order to be a legitimate championship threat, I feel a team needs to have an SPI rating of at least 8, and preferably higher. (Last year's champions, the Red Sox, posted a staggering 10.256 SPI rating, completely obliterating the competition.) Sure, the Tigers might turn things around, but at this rate, don't look for them to make the playoffs.
The same can be said about the Milwaukee Brewers. After they traded for ace pitcher C. C. Sabathia recently, many sportswriters talked about the Brewers as a potential wild card threat in the National League. They might be better with Sabathia, but their SPI is still below 6, and until they can start bringing their run differential up, I'm not ready to take them seriously.
And now, my thoughts on the eight probable playoff teams. Each league has three divisions, and the winners of those are guaranteed playoff spots. The wild card spot goes to the team with the next highest record. Sometimes this means that very good teams are kept out at the expense of less-talented teams that won a weak division, so I can't just choose the top eight in the SPI. I'll extrapolate teams' records out to 162 games and give you my predictions on how it will turn out. Remember, though - these are just predictions. Any number of things could happen before October that would dramatically change things.
American League
AL East: Boston Red Sox (99-63)
AL Central: Chicago White Sox (97-65)
AL West: Oakland A's (94-68)
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)
National League
NL East: Philadelphia Philles (95-67)
NL Central: Chicago Cubs (101-61)
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80)
NL Wild Card: New York Mets (87-75)
Red Sox def. Rays
White Sox def. A's
Cubs def. Diamondbacks
Phillies def. Mets
Red Sox def. White Sox
Cubs def. Phillies
Cubs def. Red Sox
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Adrian would be thrilled with your predictions--he's a Cubs fan, still, all because of Mark Grace (which now gives him fond feelings for the Diamondbacks as well). I'll tell him as soon as he wakes up from his Sunday nap.
Speaking of him, thanks for remembering his birthday. We were both impressed and I think he was happy that someone remembered, especially from an unsuspected source.
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