MLB SPI, 11 July

A more formal introduction will come later, once I have more time to write.

I've given a detailed explanation of how the SPI works elsewhere, so I'll forgo that. Just one quick note - I've changed the scale to assign each team a rating of 0-10. It's pretty intuitive. If a team has a rating close to 10, they're very good. A team with a rating around 5 is average. A team with a rating close to 0 is abominable. (29 of the 30 MLB teams currently have ratings higher than 2. No one should ever have a rating equal to or less than zero.) This should help to make the index more user-friendly, particulary for those without much sports or statistical experience.

Based on that, we see that six teams have ratings far above the rest. I've dubbed this group "the Contenders." You may hear that other teams are hot and dangerous, but unless something changes dramatically between now and October (and it certainly could), these are the six teams with a real chance to win the World Series. In order, they are: the Cubs, the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Phillies, the A's, and the Rays. If these teams keep up at their current pace (though there's no guarantee that they will), all six of them will make the playoffs and one of them will win the World Series (probably the Cubs).

I've broken the rest of the league down into informative groups. I'll list them below and post their SPI ratings on the sidebar, where I'll keep a running list going with fairly frequent updates.

The Contenders
1. Chicago Cubs
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Philadelphia Phillies
5. Oakland A's
6. Tampa Bay Rays

The Sleepers
7. New York Yankees
8. New York Mets
9. Atlanta Braves
10. Los Angeles Angels

The Also-Rans
11. Milwaukee Brewers
12. Toronto Blue Jays
13. Minnesota Twins
14. St. Louis Cardinals

Barely Above Water
15. Detroit Tigers
16. Los Angeles Dodgers
17. Arizona Diamondbacks
18. Baltimore Orioles
19. Cleveland Indians
20. Texas Rangers
21. Florida Marlins
22. Houston Astros

Cellar Dwellers
23. Cincinnati Reds
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
25. San Francisco Giants
26. Seattle Mariners
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Colorado Rockies
29. San Diego Padres

The Washington Nationals
30. Washington Nationals