Brief discussion on college football

Maybe it's just me, but I'm really not all that impressed with most of the "elite" teams in college football this year. We hear a lot about high-flying offenses like those of Missouri and Oklahoma, and tend to accept them as being solid teams without really questioning them. But is it really that impressive if you're pounding on #221 Alcorn State? Let's examine the highest scoring offenses so far this year, limiting ourselves to the teams with an average scoring differential over 30 points:

1. (#24) Florida State, 54
2. (#2) Oklahoma, 40.7
3. Troy, 39.5
4. (#1) USC, 38.5
5. (#5) Missouri, 37
6. (#7) Texas, 35.5
7. (#4) Florida, 34.5
8. TCU, 33.3
9. (#6) LSU, 33
10. Iowa, 31
11. Indiana, 30

With the exception of a few surprises, that's pretty much the AP top ten list. But what happens if you calculate each team's strength of schedule? Just for laughs, I calculated each of these 11 teams' opponents' average RPI ranking (essentially a composite ranking of every NCAA team, taken from realtimerpi.com) and came up with the following:

1. USC, 39.5
2. Florida, 81
3. Oklahoma, 109.3
4. Missouri, 111.3
5. Iowa, 113.7
6. Texas, 116.5
7. LSU, 121.5
8. TCU, 123
9. Troy, 142
10. Indiana, 148.5
11. Florida State, 187

Through two or three games for ten of these teams, they haven't even been remotely tested. It's really easy to put up gaudy numbers against teams rated below #100. Florida State's case is particularly reprehensible, feasting on #192 Western Carolina and #182 Chattanooga. Not too hard to average wins by 54 points against competition like that. Now that conference play is starting, and these teams will be required to play against their peers, I predict some of those ridiculous scoring margins will decrease, and we'll see a different lineup of scoring leaders in a few weeks.

The Times They Are A-Changing

Don't look now, but the teams that looked like complete locks to make the playoffs are nearly all mired in losing streaks. The way I figure it, only four teams are playing well enough to even merit consideration as contenders. Without looking, can you guess which they are?

The two obvious ones, of course, are the Cubs and the Red Sox, but the only other two teams on the short list are surprises - the Mets and the Brewers. (The Rays just barely missed the cut.)

What's going on here? It seems like all of the playoff teams have been falling apart lately, while some of the also-rans and cellar dwellers (like the Indians, the Astros, and of all teams, the Nationals) are on hot streaks. It may be that everyone is just regressing toward the mean this week.

It's still strange to look at the SPI standings and see someone other than the Cubs on top, though. My guess is that the Cubs will get things turned around soon and be back to their winning ways, but really, anything could happen with a month to go.

The Playoff Push

A couple of months ago, I listed my playoff predictions, with the caveat that things might change between then and October. Boy, did they ever change. I had the Oakland A's winning the AL West over the L.A. Angels, who now are leading the A's by 20 1/2 games. Oakland currently holds the 23 spot in the SPI standings. Pretty embarassing.

So do I dare issue another set of playoff predictions? Of course I will, but once again, I'll issue some caveats. First: anything could happen between now and October. The Rockies, despite being ranked 19th, could conceivably make another miracle run. They have the schedule and talent to do it. Still, I'm not about to plan on them winning the NL West with the data I have right now. Second: I'm not using the adjusted SPI standings that I post in the sidebar every day. It doesn't make sense to predict a month into the future with data that more heavily weights recent performance. Just because Milwaukee is on a hot streak right now doesn't mean that will continue through September.

That said, here are the picks, with their expected win-loss records:

AL East: Boston Red Sox (99-63)
AL Central: Chicago White Sox (93-69)
AL West: Los Angeles Angels (89-73)
AL wild card: Tampa Bay Rays (94-68)

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
NL Central: Chicago Cubs (105-57)
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
NL wild card: Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)

Red Sox def. Angels
Rays def. White Sox
Cubs def. D-backs
Brewers def. Phillies

Red Sox def. Rays
Cubs def. Brewers

Cubs def. Red Sox

The Cubs currently have a 64% chance of victory in the World Series over the Red Sox, even with the recent losing streak they've had. Also, congratulations are in order to the Washington Nationals, who finally got out of the basement with a seven-game winning streak. The Pittsburgh Pirates have replaced them, though the category is still named for the Nationals. Such futility must not go unrecognized and unhonored.