The Playoff Push

A couple of months ago, I listed my playoff predictions, with the caveat that things might change between then and October. Boy, did they ever change. I had the Oakland A's winning the AL West over the L.A. Angels, who now are leading the A's by 20 1/2 games. Oakland currently holds the 23 spot in the SPI standings. Pretty embarassing.

So do I dare issue another set of playoff predictions? Of course I will, but once again, I'll issue some caveats. First: anything could happen between now and October. The Rockies, despite being ranked 19th, could conceivably make another miracle run. They have the schedule and talent to do it. Still, I'm not about to plan on them winning the NL West with the data I have right now. Second: I'm not using the adjusted SPI standings that I post in the sidebar every day. It doesn't make sense to predict a month into the future with data that more heavily weights recent performance. Just because Milwaukee is on a hot streak right now doesn't mean that will continue through September.

That said, here are the picks, with their expected win-loss records:

AL East: Boston Red Sox (99-63)
AL Central: Chicago White Sox (93-69)
AL West: Los Angeles Angels (89-73)
AL wild card: Tampa Bay Rays (94-68)

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
NL Central: Chicago Cubs (105-57)
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77)
NL wild card: Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)

Red Sox def. Angels
Rays def. White Sox
Cubs def. D-backs
Brewers def. Phillies

Red Sox def. Rays
Cubs def. Brewers

Cubs def. Red Sox

The Cubs currently have a 64% chance of victory in the World Series over the Red Sox, even with the recent losing streak they've had. Also, congratulations are in order to the Washington Nationals, who finally got out of the basement with a seven-game winning streak. The Pittsburgh Pirates have replaced them, though the category is still named for the Nationals. Such futility must not go unrecognized and unhonored.