Battle for Chicago

Over the last week, we've watched the Chicago White Sox go from potential also-ran to administering death to all who oppose them. They've quietly been winning games (five straight, and eight of their last nine), and doing so by large enough margins to overtake the Red Sox for the number 2 position in the SPI standings. Their scoring differential over their last ten games is a staggering 52 runs, nearly double their nearest competitor, and giving them an average margin of over 5 runs a game. That's a far cry from the 0.929 runs per game they're at for the season, but it does lead us to this conclusion - if you have to play the White Sox this season, now isn't the time. Pray for rain.

That said, the other Chicago team is still mighty enough that I'm keeping tabs on how badly they would beat any AL team in the World Series. Their unadjusted SPI rating is nearly 1.5 points ahead of second place. (Their adjusted SPI rating isn't nearly so dominant, thanks to the White Sox, but it's safe to say that recent hot streak won't last. They can't go on winning games by eight and twelve runs a game forever.) Assuming the two teams with the highest SPI ratings - the two Chicago teams - make it to the World Series, we could expect to see the Cubs win more than 66% of the time. (For those wondering, that's a very high expectation for victory.) Even more astonishing is the fact that you could expect a Cubs sweep nearly 9% of the time. Granted, this doesn't take into account the unique situation of having every game in Chicago, so all expectations for road and home winning percentages go out the window, but still, it's eye-opening.

In other news, not that anyone else cares about the Colorado Rockies but me, but the Rox are climbing back up the standings again, thanks to their second win over the Dodgers and their fifth straight. With any luck, they'll continue to rise, although it would take a finish like last year's to get them back into the playoffs. Here's hoping.