Considerations About Ranking

While I'm aware that this blog's readership hovers around zero, my legions of imaginary readers have often asked me how I determine which teams belong in which categories. It's a good question, and you'll be pleased to know that it's not simply random or arbitrary. I'll break it down for you.

The Contenders. These are teams whose SPI ratings indicate that they are legitimate challengers for the World Series. They also tend to be teams with SPI ratings higher than 8.000. I calculated the SPI ratings of the past 30 World Series champions (back to the 1977 Yankees) and found that the average World Series winner rates an 8.179, after outliers are removed. (I took out the 1998 Yankees (12.510 SPI) and 1987 Twins (5.050) to get a clearer picture of championship talent.) I shifted the cutoff down to an even 8.000 to include more teams, and if a team is close enough to the cutoff (like the Phillies, with a 7.960 SPI rating), I add them in, too. Sometimes a team is far enough ahead of the rest of the pack to warrant a new category - "The Juggernaut." With the Cubs more than a full point ahead of their nearest competitor, I feel they deserve the title.

The Sleepers. These are teams that could conceivably sneak into the playoffs and make some noise, but I wouldn't put any money on them winning a championship. I generally include teams with SPI ratings between 7.999 and 6.500. Ten of the last thirty World Series champions have had ratings in that range (most recently the 2005 White Sox, 7.735 SPI), so a champion from this point range isn't unheard of, but it is somewhat less than likely. Interestingly enough, many of the teams that generate significant media attention as the Next Big Thing (recently the Rays and the Angels) tend to come from this group.

The Also-Rans. These are teams that will finish with a winning record, but not make the playoffs. I generally list teams between 6.499 and 5.500. (5.500 represents a team with equal amounts of wins and losses and a zero run differential.) Only one World Series champion in the past 30 years has fallen into this category - the 2006 Cardinals, widely regarded as one of the worst champions in history.

Barely Above Water. These tend to be teams struggling to keep a winning record. Their SPI ratings are between 5.499 and 4.500. One World Series champion - the 1987 Twins, 5.050 SPI - came from this group.

Cellar Dwellers. Self-explanatory. SPI lower than 4.499, unless circumstances warrant the creation of an extra group (like with The Contenders), such as this year, when I created an extra group just for the Washington Nationals, who have dazzled the league with their mediocrity. The Nationals, though clearly the worst team this year, are nowhere near the worst. The Diamondbacks and the Tigers have each achieved negative SPI rankings in past years, so the Nationals, though bad this year, are far from historically bad.