The Juggernauts

Is there anyone who wants to argue that the Cubs and the Red Sox aren't far and away the two best teams in baseball right now? I know the the Angels have a better record than both of them, and that both teams have a losing record away from home, but these two teams have been on top of the standings for a while now, and they're starting to pull away from the rest of the league. The Cubs have a per game scoring differential of nearly 1.3 runs, which, if they keep it up, will be good enough for third-best of the last thirty years (of World Series champions, at least). Very impressive. Boston isn't far behind, winning their games by .975 runs.

Of course, it's worth noting that over the last thirty years, only four teams have won the World Series with a losing record on the road. I'm willing to bet that either of these teams could overcome that, given their massive scoring differential, but let's put it to the test. Suppose the Boston Red Sox and the L.A. Angels were to meet in the ALCS tomorrow. The Angels would have home field advantage, so four games would be in L.A. and three in Boston. Who would be most likely to win? Our win percentage calculator says that in such an ALCS, the Angels would win 42.2% of the time, while Boston wins 57.4% of the time. Advantage, Boston, even without the home field edge. What about a potential Cubs-Angels World Series? Once again, we turn to the win calculator, and once again, the Angels get home field advantage thanks to their record. Unfortunately, it doesn't matter for the Angels, since they fare even worse against the Cubs. The Angels' chances fall to 34% against the Cubs, with Chicago winning the World Series nearly 66% of the time. (11.6% of the time, the Cubs win in a sweep. Yikes.)

In short, it looks like it's a good year to be a Cubs fan. They're on a pace to steamroll everyone who gets in their path, no matter how attractive a hot team like the Angels or the Brewers (31.5% chance of winning the World Series against the Red Sox) may look now.